Market News- POET: Portland 11/18/19 8:44:09 AM
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|Weekly POET Grain Report|
November 18, 2019
- It’s been a very quiet overnight session in the grains as fresh news is lacking. Corn is trading unchanged after closing Friday at the lowest level since late September. As a blanket statement, producers are still only selling what they have to based on space and cashflow needs. Speaking of cashflow, the new round of MFP payments will be going out this week, which will help replenish cash supplies and likely make the producer an even more unwilling seller.
- South American weather remains non-threatening, as both the EU and GFS models are in agreement that ample moisture and seasonally cooler temps will prevail into early December.
- Expectations are for soybean harvest to reach 92-94% complete this afternoon, while corn is expected to reach 75-77% complete.
- Dec corn closed right at the 61.8% fib retracement from the Sept low to Oct high on Friday. This has been an area of interest for me for quite awhile, as last year dec ’18 corn found support at this same retracement and managed to rally into year-end. Will the same be true this time? Both RSI and Stochastics are nearing oversold levels (on both the daily and weekly charts), so I feel we’re close to forming at least a short-term bottom at this level. One note of caution for the bulls, however is that we will soon see the March contract take place of the dec contract on the corn continuous chart – which will leave a 10 cent gap below the market. There are high odds that this gap gets filled at some point before the March contract expires, so I still view any bounce as a selling opportunity.