Market News- POET: Portland 10/14/19 10:16:43 AM
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|Weekly POET Grain Report|
October 14, 2019
- It’s been a fairly active overnight session for both corn and soybeans as euphoria from last week’s trade talks carried into the Sunday night re-open. Both gapped up on the open, only to fill the gaps as the evening session wore on. While President Trump has been touting Chinese purchases of $50B in US ag products, Chinese media has quite a different version of the story as they indicated that they would like to negotiate a few other items before signing “phase 1” of the deal.
- Expanding on the idea of China purchasing $50B in US Ag products – the highest $ amount they’ve ever purchased from the U.S. in a fiscal year is $30B in 2014. Keep in mind that the underlying prices of corn and soybeans were substantially higher in 2014 (soybeans traded up to $15/bu), so reaching $50B in a single year is an enormous task.
- The weekend weather forecast was as advertised, with significant snowfall in the Dakotas and a killing freeze impacting nearly all areas in the Western/Central cornbelt. The extended forecast is much more favorable as mild temps and dry weather should improve harvest conditions for the second half of the month.
- Dec corn found resistance at the 200 day moving average overnight. The $4.02-$4.04 zone is also a high volume pocket which should act as decent resistance here until more is known on the trade resolution/weather. Support remains at the $3.82 area which is the uptrend line established from the $3.52 low.
October 11, 2019
- Commodity values all bouncing a bit this morning after the post-WASDE sell-off yesterday. Overall, the numbers for corn aren’t overly bearish – but the reaction was more likely a result of “not as bullish as hoped”. We’re getting to the point where large yield changes from this point forward are fairly uncommon, so it has to come down to lower harvested acres and/or increased demand – the latter of which is very unlikely given the current ethanol and export environments. At this point, eyes need to be focused on South American weather – specifically Brazil where dryness remains and the extended forecast doesn’t look overly wet either. This is going to have to be the next story for bulls to latch onto after yesterday’s report.
- The higher trade this morning is likely also a result of rumors that trade negotiations are ongoing, and some even saying they’re going well. “Well” is a word with a different meaning to many people, but this market has been hanging onto hope of a trade deal now for 19 months, so these headlines still have an impact.
- Dec corn found support yesterday near $3.80, which happens to be the intersection of the 20 and 50 day moving averages. A break and close below this level would find the next support level at $3.71-$3.73, which is a high volume “auction” area for Dec corn. Upside resistance rests at $3.97 ¼ which is the weekly high set on Wednesday.
POET Portland 2019 Yield Check Report
Producers to Receive Automatic Prevented Planting ‘Top-Up’ Payments
Approved Insurance Providers to Issue Payments Starting Mid-October
WASHINGTON, Sept. 26, 2019 – The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced today that producers currently participating in federal crop insurance who had in 2019 a payable prevented planting indemnity related to flooding, excess moisture or causes other than drought will automatically receive a “top-up” payment. Producers will receive the payment from their Approved Insurance Providers (AIPs) starting in mid-October.
Producers with Yield Protection and Revenue Protection with Harvest Price Option will receive a 10 percent top-up payment, while producers with Revenue Protection will receive 15 percent. They do not need to sign up to receive payments; all producers with a 2019 prevented planting indemnity will receive the top-up.
“It was a challenging planting season for many of our farmers,” said Bill Northey, USDA’s Under Secretary for Farm Production and Conservation. “We are doing everything we can to ensure producers receive the help they need.
“USDA is working with AIPs so that producers can receive additional payments as soon as possible,” Northey added, “and we appreciate the AIPs for helping us help America’s farmers.”
The crop insurance industry will deliver the payments as part of the Additional Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Relief Act of 2019. After the initial payment, additional payments will be made in the middle of each month as more prevented planting claims are processed.
“Crop insurance is an important program for many producers to help them manage their production and price risks,” said Martin Barbre, Administrator of USDA’s Risk Management Agency (RMA). “We’re leveraging that system to efficiently and effectively deliver much needed support to our farmers.”
RMA received commitments from all 14 AIPs to deliver the top-up payments:
The prevented planting top-up payments are different from the Wildfires and Hurricanes Indemnity Program Plus (WHIP+) payments. (For more information on WHIP+, visit https://www.farmers.gov/recover/whip-plus.)
- ACE Property and Casualty (Rain and Hail) Insurance Company
- American Agri-Business Insurance Company
- American Agricultural Insurance Company
- CGB Insurance Company
- Church Mutual Insurance Company
- Country Mutual Insurance Company
- Farmers Mutual Hail Insurance Company
- Great American Insurance Company
- Hudson Insurance Company
- NAU Country Insurance Company
- Producers Agricultural Insurance Company
- Rural Community Insurance Company
- Stratford Insurance Company
- XL Reinsurance America Inc.
Read RMA’s frequently asked questions to learn more about prevented planting. Crop insurance is sold and delivered solely through private crop insurance agents. A list of crop insurance agents is available at all USDA Service Centers and online at the RMA Agent Locator. Learn more about crop insurance and the modern farm safety net at rma.usda.gov