Market News- POET: Portland  10/06/20 7:54:01 AM Printer Friendly VersionPrinter Friendly Version

Tuesday, October 6

The USDA pegged corn harvest at 25% complete yesterday, up from 15% the prior week and vs the 5 year average of 24% on this date.  Corn harvest in MO and the ECB states continues to lag the 5-year average, however its pretty clear that specifically in MO - corn harvest pace is behind normal at the expense of soybean harvest which is above normal pace by a like amount.  IL, IN and OH are really the only states to have seen weather related delays so far - otherwise its been smooth sailing for the rest of the cornbelt.  Corn harvest and soybean harvest pace by state can be seen in the below images (top number is % harvested and bottom number is vs 5-year avg).

 
  • Trade estimates have been released for Friday's WASDE report.  The average corn carryout is seen at 2.113B bushels (range of 1.859-2.333), which is down significantly from 2.503B bushels in September.  Using the lower Sept 1 stocks as the new carry-in would get you 2.245B bushels with no demand/production changes, so the trade is estimating lower production and/or higher demand (likely exports).
  • Soybean carryout is seen at 369MM bushels (285-460MM bu range), which is down from 460MM bushels in September.  With beans up another 11 cents as of this writing, doesn't look like funds are too scared about their record long position heading into the report.  Should be an interesting one on Friday!
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