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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/22 11:18

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Mixed action at midday with corn the leader.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures down 80. The 
interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 30 higher. Energies are 
narrowly mixed. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are mixed with gold 
down 3.80. 


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade seeing light buying 
to open the week. The harvest pace should begin to build again the next few 
days with the more open weather expected to persist into late October, although 
some forecasts have started to drift wetter towards the end of the month. 
Ethanol margins remain tight with futures mired below $1.29 a gallon. Corn 
basis should start to see renewed pressure with better harvest pace. The weekly 
export inspections were slightly softer at 949,148 metric tons with weekly crop 
progress expected to show harvest moving past 50%. On the December chart 
support is at the 20-day at $3.67 3/4 which is were we are just above at midday 
with the 50-day at $3.64 just below that, with the 10-day just above the market 
at $3.70 nearby resistance then the $3.78 1/2 recent high.


   Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday in quiet action to start 
the week with trade trying to find footing amid the wider harvest pressure this 
week. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. Soybean basis 
will likely see pressure with harvest continuing to expand. Quality concerns 
remain at the forefront as well, which will take a while to sort out. Crush 
margins remain strong in the near term. South America should continue to see 
fairly normal early season progress in the near term with good moisture with 
the biggest concerns in Argentina. Weekly export inspections showed some 
improvement at 1.148 million metric tons, but remain below the usual seasonal 
pace. The weekly crop progress should move us past 50% harvested as well. On 
the November chart support is the 50-day at $8.55 with the 20-day at $8.63 
above that.


   Wheat trade is 2 to 8 cents lower to start the week with range bound action 
continuing with some short covering likely later today with the retest of the 
lower end of the recent range and oversold conditions. The U.S. dollar has 
jumped back above 95.7 with more flight-to-safety trade on the outside market 
concerns. Winter wheat planting is ongoing with better conditions in North 
America than Europe with plenty of moisture on the Plains, along with mixed 
Black Sea area conditions. Australia remains in the recent weather pattern with 
harvest coming soon. MATIF milling wheat is mixed this morning. Planting 
progress should remain near average, along with emergence, with conditions 
overall good if issued today. The weekly export inspections remained with the 
recent range at 385,047 metric tons. On the December Kansas City chart, we are 
below at the 10-day and 20-day at 5.21 with the lower Bollinger Band support at 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.  
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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